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Media Release - Issued 7th September, 2002

INVESTOR AND FINANCIAL ADVISER SENTIMENT INDICES

Investors and Advisers Agree - the Market is headed down.

The September monthly survey of Investment Sentiment conducted by the Australian Investors' Association and Adviser Ratings shows that both investors and financial advisers have become more bearish since the August survey, BUT Advisers remain much more optimistic than investors.

The Investors sentiment index shows a16% fall in Bulls and a significant increase in Neutral sentiment, i.e. believe the market will stay about the same in the next six months. The Adviser sentiment index shows a significant increase in Bears but from a very low base.

Once again the most notable feature when comparing Investor Sentiment to Adviser Sentiment is that Advisers are so much more Bullish than investors. (47.1% to 25.2%).

There could be a number of reasons for this and it begs the questions:

  • What is it that Advisers know that investors don't?
  • Why are Advisers not able to communicate their optimism to investors?
  • Can Advisers afford to be Bears?
  • Are Advisers by their nature contrarians?
  • Is it just a case of investors being overly cautious because it is their money at risk?

The surveys were conducted between 30th August and 3rd September.
Followin are Charts including Asset Allocation
The Sentiment Surveys will be conducted every month

For more information regarding Adviser Ratings or the Australian Investors' Association,

CONTACT

Bob Andrew
AIA President

David Child
AIA Director and CEO Adviser Ratings
Email: randrew@bigpond.net.au
Phone: 07 3892 5529
Email: dachild@fuzion.com.au
Phone: 07 3374.1175
Mobile: 0407 035 823

Investors are displaying significantly greater caution regarding the share market than financial advisers.

Investors caution regarding the share market does not at first sight appear to be reflected in their preferred portfolio, however there is a considerable difference in allocation to international equities.

The most significant movement has been in the number of investors taking a neutral position. The increase in the neutral position has come almost equally from Bulls and Bears.

Advisers, on the other hand, have become more bearish. Neutral position Advisers have not changed but Bulls have retreated and Bears increased. However Advisers remain far more Bullish than investors. We restate our comments regarding this factor made in the August Report.

 

Interestingly changes in both Investor and Adviser Sentiment regarding the Australian Share market is not causing either group to make any major changes in their Asset Allocations.
However both Investors and Advisers have reduced exposure to international equities and increased their allocation to cash.
The most significant variation between Investors and Advisers is in the allocation to Property and International Equities, which we believe is due to :-
a) Lack of property products for Advisers to recommend
b) Investors familiarity with and traditional liking for investment home units.

 

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