Book Review > Future Consumer.com - The Webolution of Shopping to 2

The author is a global business futurist who believes that the Internet Revolution hurricane (his definition for the "webolution" referred to in the title" will, before it is finished around 2018, reverse virtually everything that th Industrial Revolution put in place. It will, he claims, smash the mass consumption economy to smithereens and re-centre it on the home. Around the 2005, online purchases will reach 10% - 15% of total sales in most product categories, wiping out the profit of most retailers. By 2010, online shopping will account for 31% of retail sales - 43% if you exclude the motor vehicles and education categories. Many conventional shopping outlets will vanish as click-and-buy e-tailing takes over.
The author contends that current thinking relating to business to consumer e-commerce is subject to one major shortcoming: the bricks and / or clicks debate that addresses the merits of shopfront versus online retailing, fails to give due recognition to the need for online retailers to secure a bookmarked inclusion in the consumer's favourites listing. He argues that, although most internet users maintain a "favourites" list of bookmarked websites that they visit most frequently, the average favourites list containes no more than two to three dozen websites. Therefore, the debate about who will win - the pure bricks, pure clicks, or bricks-and-clicks, misses the point.
We are reminded that all retailers are competing for consumer attention. If consumers limit themselves to no more than fifteen bookmarked retail sites on their favourites lists, there will be no more than one or two winners in each major product category. Hence, due to the rapid growth of online shopping and the limited space available on the average e-shopper's favourites list, each retail category faces a massive shake-out.
It is the future impact of the internet on the family and business to consumer e-commerce that this book addresses. It is primarily intended to assist businesses survive the coming upheaval but is of some relevance to the investor. It addresses its subject in 317 pages that includes 24 chapters set in four parts titled: The "Webolution" (3 chapters), Who Will Shop Online (3 chapters), What They Will Buy (13 chapters) and e-Marketing Strategy: From Mall to "Mallennium" (5 chapters). References, statistics and projections relate to the North American scene.
The "Webolution" chapters include the author's vision of web-enabled family life in 2010. Nothing new here perhaps but it serves to set the scene. Also included is an interesting summary of how computing and the internet got to where they are today and where they will be in 2010.
In the part relating to "Who Will Shop Online", and in order to understand the transition from mass-market bricks-and-mortar retailing to personalised click-and-order e-tailing, the author notes that it is first necessary to profile who is now shopping online and who will do so in future. He then tackes this task by giving consideration to demographics, psychographics (what makes customers behave as they do), and webographics (customer profiles).
"What They Will Buy" initially gives reasoned consideration to what will be bought online, using a matrix to evaluate a variety of products and services for their suitability for online sales. A chapter is then devoted to each of twelve categories. Each includes stated and forecast online sales as a percentage of total category sales for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010 - 3%, 14% and 31% respectively in aggregate, plus forecasts of the top five websites in each category by 2010.
In the final part, the author aims to provide businesses with a competitive edge in their fight for survival, by detailing an online strategy that every organisation must pursue, He explains why some websites succeed and others fail, when detailing the evolution of marketing websites and the next stage of this process.
The author's projections are plausible yet no doubt controversial. One premise open to challenge is that the average favourites list will remain at no more than two to three dozen websites, with no more than fifteen devoted to retail sites. Might not those figures grow substantially as the internet comes to plan an increasingly important role in our daily lives - as we become more sophisticated users of it and more dependant upon it? (bearing in mind that the bricks-and-mortar shopping experience is supposedly such a painful one). And, that is another premise open to challenge!
Theauthor contends that for reasons he specifies, the bricks-and-mortar shopping experience is a painful one. However, the reviewer, who might be sympathetic to the notion of pain being associated with the shopping experience - particularly if prolonged, often feels that he is one of a minority! If that is so, then the pessimistic outlook for the bricks-and-mortar retailer, painted by the author, may be overstated.
Will the projections become realities - substantially to to some degree? The book provides both easy and stimulating reading, so let the reader consider the concepts, review the projections, ponder the suggested outcomes, and evaluate the strategy. A better appreciation of these must provide the business person and investor with a competitive edge that will benefit their future decision making.